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Context

Context is our bimonthly newsletter, available only on subscription. Context is a geopolitical and geo-economic view of major advanced technology weapons systems. We regularly publish extracts of the publication to give a taste of its content.

To The Point, Context n°111, December 2007 — F-15 crisis, A US(AF) Crisis

F-15 crisis, A US(AF) Crisis Time Catches Up with the F-15 On 2 November, an F-15C of the Missouri Air National Guard crashed. The accident in itself is not exceptional but its cause is. After the initial findings, the USAF ordered the stand down of 700 Model C F-15s. It appears that the accident was due to structural fatigue of the aircraft in other words, old age. Before the cause of the accident could be determined, alarm bells started ringing. On 6 November, it was announced that the F-15 aircraft in Afghanistan had been ordered momentarily to desist from engaging in operations. The same day,… To The Point, Context n°111, December 2007 — F-15 crisis, A US(AF) Crisis

To The Point, Context n°108, September 2007 — Return to Reality

Return to Reality The Shadow of a Doubt During the month of August, it was learned that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had decided to bring/call into question the JSF program for the IDF. (Israel, having signed onto the development cooperation phase, had decided early in 2006 to order 100 F-35s.) On 19 August, the daily Haaretz announced: The Israeli Defense Forces will conduct a force structure review this week under the guidance of deputy Chief of Staff Moshe Kaplinsky, and will consider postponing the procurement of the F-35 stealth strike fighter. [] The Israel Air Force lobby at the General Staff suffered a setback… To The Point, Context n°108, September 2007 — Return to Reality

To The point, Context n°107, July-August, 2007 — A Raptor fo All Seasons

A Raptor for All Seasons After Japan, Australia? Whatever the fate of the Japanese interest in the American F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft, it seems that a fundamental change has taken place in the view held by the American national security Establishment as regards this weapon system. Until the Japanese affair, the system was sacrosanct, clearly reserved solely and exclusively for US military users answerable to the nation’s highest calling (often seen from an isolationist standpoint as is frequently the situation in the case of the most advanced American aerospace systems). The Japanese request, and the reception accorded it, made it clear that the system could… To The point, Context n°107, July-August, 2007 — A Raptor fo All Seasons

La Grande Nation Speaks Out Loud and Clear

La Grande Nation Speaks Out Loud and Clear Editorial, Context n°105, May 2007 In a way, one can be forgiven for thinking that 22 April, the date of the first round of the Presidential election in France, was the most important aspect of the election. The record voter turnout (84% of the electorate) attained the historic level of the first presidential election of the Fifth Republic in 1965 and marks a turning point in the continuous decline in participation up to the catastrophic outcome (for France, a country with a keen sense of civism) of 72% of the electorate in April 2002. The general assessment… La Grande Nation Speaks Out Loud and Clear

To The Point, Context n°92, February 2006 — Failed and Hijacked QDR

Failed QDR QDR versus the Non-Willing’ By its heft, its chronological position at the heart of the Bush Era (Rumsfeld Era 2001-2009?) and its pivotal role, the 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) was to be the principal lever for effecting the transformation‘ that Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld had designated as the definitive Pentagon reform. It was to entail leaving behind once and for all the ways and the mentality of the Cold War and entering into the 21st century in one fell swoop. Rarely, in an affair of this importance, has such an ambitious aspiration been so completely thwarted and brought to naught. The 2005… To The Point, Context n°92, February 2006 — Failed and Hijacked QDR

To The Point, context n°79 (December 2004) — The Polish F-16 Deal & BPJ

@SURTITRE = An Existentialist Shift The F-16 Reaching Into Iraq On 17 October, the Los Angeles Times and the Boston Globe both published the same long and detailed article setting forth the conditions of the sale entered into at the start of 2003 of 48 Martin F-16 fighter aircraft to Poland. The sale price was $3.5 billion, but the contract entailed a promise of American investment in Poland to the tune of $6 billion. The article observed that the United States brought the full force of its powerful economy to bear on prospective military allies. More to the point, Gregory Filipowicz, a Polish consultant explained… To The Point, context n°79 (December 2004) — The Polish F-16 Deal & BPJ

Editorial, Context n°86 (July 2005) — Did Someone Say ‘Blitz’?

Did Someone Say Blitz’? Certainly, there is the horror of all terrorist acts. Expatiating on them and lashing out against their barbarity comes all to easily. That makes it possible to gauge the ignorance and the superficiality of analysis which characterize what could be termed the official press’ (the blindly pro governmental press in our countries). The London bombings of 7 July were a prime example. The symbolism proved irresistible. The pundits and commentators harked back to memories of Britain’s spirit in toughing out the Blitz of 1940. Turning to an article in the Chicago Sun Times of 12 July by J. O’Sullivan entitled: Can… Editorial, Context n°86 (July 2005) — Did Someone Say ‘Blitz’?

To The Point, Context n°85 (June 2005) — Where Is Europe Heading?

@SURTITRE = Where Is Europe Heading? The Minister Speaks Her Mind France’s Minister of Defense Michèle Alliot-Marie has won her nom de guerre: MAM’, an acronym formed by her initials. As it turns out, the lady minister embodies both the familiarity of the Ma’am of America’s Old South and the respectability of the Ma’am used in addressing the Queen in Buckingham Palace. The monicker has stuck and has gained popularity in the French armed forces, as well as in the French political world. MAM managed to stand up to the daunting Donald Rumsfeld who now greets her with the respect that she has earned during… To The Point, Context n°85 (June 2005) — Where Is Europe Heading?

To The Point, Context n°84 (May 2005) — Bureaucratic Imperialism & Bureaucratic Coup

@SURTITRE = Bureaucratic Imperialism A Perfect’ Incident In its 2 May 2005 issue, Defense News describes what it calls a perfect operation’, one that transpired on 8 April in the skies over Italy. It was the day of the funeral rites for Pope John Paul II, and a considerable number of personalities, including heads of state and of government, had gathered in Rome for the occasion. A private aircraft, a LearJet, classified as unknown’, was reported entering Italian airspace. At the same time, information from intelligence services indicated that the aircraft had a bomb on board and might have the intention of carrying out a… To The Point, Context n°84 (May 2005) — Bureaucratic Imperialism & Bureaucratic Coup

Analysis, Context n°79 (December, 2004) — The French Factor

The French Factor Treated with contempt, ridiculed, sidelined, France today is prominent, if not preeminent in all the institutions that matter in providing an alternative to Americanization. Richard Allen, National Security Adviser to President Reagan (1981-82) and current member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board, told Le Figaro on 20 October 2004: Yes, France is still a major player because it has a tradition of acting independently. France has a history and an awareness; it tailors its goals to match its national interests. We always take account of what we call the French factor’. On all sides especially at the EU and in NATO following… Analysis, Context n°79 (December, 2004) — The French Factor

To The Point, Context n°75 (July 2004) — Somber Anniversary, Ten Years of US Defense Industry’s Consolidation

@SURTITRE = Somber Anniversary @TITREDDE = Big Isn’t So Beautiful, After All Almost ten years ago, on 4 September 1994, Norman Augustine, CEO of Martin-Marietta, announced the mega-merger of the Century’, consolidating Lockheed and Martin-Marietta into Lockheed Martin. That move constituted a major event, a culmination of the tremendous restructuring of the US defense industry of the nineties. The trend was capped by a second mega-merger, the takeover of McDonnell Douglas by Boeing in 1997. The announcement of the Lockheed-Martin Marietta merger evoked a reaction in keeping with the significance of the event. The specialized media greeted the event as the decisive affirmation of American… To The Point, Context n°75 (July 2004) — Somber Anniversary, Ten Years of US Defense Industry’s Consolidation

A Furtive Revolution Founded on Stealth

To Believe or Not To Believe The abandonment of the RAH-66 Comanche combat helicopter was announced on 23 February with an abundance of precautions – the secret had been well kept, precluding resistance to abandoning the system. It is a major event in the history of weapon system development. It is, perhaps, a still more important event with regard to what has constituted, for over a quarter century, the foundation of the DoD armaments development philosophy. Presenting the causes of the abandonment of the program on 25 February, Army Chief of Staff Peter Schoomaker declared: >Comanche was a wonderful idea up until about 1989. […]… A Furtive Revolution Founded on Stealth

To The point, Context n°66 (October, 2003) — Comparing Iraqi Freedom and Operation Artemis

@SURTITRE = Revolution in the Making @TITREDDE = What is War Today? It is clear that the world today is about to witness the birth of new forms of political and military action that can be expected to have far-reaching strategic and geopolitical implications. The events that have shaken the world since 11 September 2001 have unveiled greater uncertainty, greater disarray and greater disenchantment than they have resolution and awareness of what is at stake in what some have described as the greatest war that civilization has ever been called upon to wage the War on Terror. These negative aspects are to be found in… To The point, Context n°66 (October, 2003) — Comparing Iraqi Freedom and Operation Artemis

Defense Export: The JSF Ideology

Defense Exports: The JSF Ideology Assessment of the evolution of weapons exports in broad outline. The example selected is the most structured and the most significant, as well as the most radical. The US holds center stage, with the JSF and its global reach, but with an unexpected dimension – an ideological one. An assumption which we deem to be highly probable is that the JSF program would have been dropped, reduced or modified beyond recognition, if the attack of 11 September 2001 had never occurred. The day before, 10 September, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld had given an astoundingly powerful talk, which we provided an… Defense Export: The JSF Ideology

To The Point, Context n°57 (December, 2002) — Europe in the Making?

@SURTITRE = Europe in the Making? Europe’s Uncertain Trumpet Europe is accustomed to being profoundly shaken by the violent shifts in Western policy, most often wrought by the United States. In the spring of 1999, the attack against Kosovo launched by NATO primarily under pressure from then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright produced strong reactions in Europe. The campaign in Kosovo had revealed the lack of military effectiveness of many European countries, including paradoxically some integrated into NATO. In general, media praise was reserved for the performance of the UK forces, on the flanks of the US forces, whereas true military prowess was demonstrated… To The Point, Context n°57 (December, 2002) — Europe in the Making?

To The Point, Context n°55 (October, 2002) — The “Babelization” of the JSF

@SURTITRE = JSF Babel The Babelization of the JSF In a way, the marketing campaign to internationalize the JSF program is an unprecedented success, a success that perhaps exceeds the hopes of its promoters. Eight countries the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Turkey, Canada, and Australia have agreed to participate in the program’s final R&D phase. The UK, Italy and the Netherlands have made substantial commitments. Israel is engaged in advanced negotiations and Singapore has received a proposal. A French industry source commented, with irony tinged with bitterness, that the European countries had commitments to the JSF program « to a level of $4… To The Point, Context n°55 (October, 2002) — The “Babelization” of the JSF

To The Point, Context n°54 (August-September 2002) — EFA, JSF and their strategic relationship

@SURTITRE = Friend or Foe ? Farnborough The Show that Wasn’t The Farnborough Show 2002 that took place at the end of July was marked by a rather strange atmosphere one that was both fever-pitched and spellbinding, yet, at the same time, disenchanted and hesitant. In his editorial of 29 July, Aviation Week & Space Technology (AW&ST) Editor in Chief David North noted: « Most of the industry officials responded to questions about their impression of the show, with words like flat and indicative of an industry in survival mode. As one long-time show observer said, It reminds me of a person treading water fairly… To The Point, Context n°54 (August-September 2002) — EFA, JSF and their strategic relationship

Analysis, Context n°53 (July 2002) — Revolution from Above

Analysis, From Context n°53, July 2002 The Pentagon is having its revolution It is now a matter of putting on the back-burner all the war -making capability in favor of communicating information on the war. This curious trend, which we see as inexorable, will yet come back to haunt its initiators. Revolution from Above Several articles in the specialized American press have been under discussion for some weeks. We are talking here primarily about the article that appeared in the 22 April 2002 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology (AW&ST), « Pentagon Priorities Shift to Data and Networks ». That article spelled out the… Analysis, Context n°53 (July 2002) — Revolution from Above

Analysis, Context n°51 (May 2002) – Stealth by Any Means

Stealth by Any Means A recently-published book (cited in Context No. 50, Analysis ) relates in detail the fate of the General Dynamics/McDonnell Douglas A-12 (ex-ATA) program, abandoned in 1991 and subsequently the subject of a drawn-out legal battle between the builders and the US Navy. The book is The $5 Billion Misunderstanding, by James P. Stevenson (Naval Institute Press), a remarkable example of the type of investigative reporting that America prides itself on. After some general information on the ATA/A-12 program, we shall endeavor to examine the role of stealth technology in the program, from a critical if not contentious viewpoint, on the basis… Analysis, Context n°51 (May 2002) – Stealth by Any Means

To The Point, Context n°44 (March-April 2001) – The JSF in Extremis

@SURTITRE = Quo Vadis? The JSF in Extremis The article by Rowan Scarborough in the 22 January issue of the Republican-leaning Washington Times stands as a beacon of clarity. With its first words, the key point is made: Incoming Pentagon officials have already begun discussing options for killing or curtailing major weapons systems, with the Joint Strike Fighter mentioned as a possible casualty, defense officials say. The sources said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s transition team has sent ‘feelers’ to Capitol Hill to gauge political opposition to canceling systems that create jobs in a number of states. Since President Bush’s arrival in town, the Washington of… To The Point, Context n°44 (March-April 2001) – The JSF in Extremis

Analysis, Context n°43 (Jan.-Feb. 2001) – Is NATO a  »Relic of History »?

On 5 December 2000, at the meeting of NATO Defense Ministers, US Secretary of Defense William Cohen voiced strong concerns over the direction which the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was taking, concerns which did not go unnoticed. Two weeks earlier, EU Ministers had finalized the principal instrument of that policy, the European Rapid Reaction Force (ERRF) composed of 60,000 deployable troops, entailing a general pool (including reservists) subject to mobilization of over 100,000 men. Three days after the NATO meeting, on 8 December, at the EU Summit in Nice, the EU by treaty endorsed the ESDP and the ERRF. Cohen’s fear is that… Analysis, Context n°43 (Jan.-Feb. 2001) – Is NATO a  »Relic of History »?

To the Point, Context n°42 (November-December 2000) – Europe in the Making

European Parallels Joint developments, since 1998, for the integration of European strategic industry (aerospace, defense and electronics) and the formulation of a common European Defense (ESDP) within the EU are now leading observers to envisage establishment of a true European internal market for weapon systems. According to a European source close to the European Commission: It is clear that a military-industrial Europe is in the process of taking shape. Accordingly, there must be rules to stabilize the activities of the market which is coming into being to foster the development of an economic and industrial environment which meets the demands of competition. The idea behind… To the Point, Context n°42 (November-December 2000) – Europe in the Making

Analysis, Context n°42 (November-December 2000) – The Battle of the 4%

The Battle of the 4% Since July, various military leaders, or figures close to the military, have been demanding a considerable increase in the US Department of Defense (DoD) budget. Among them: Admiral Jay Johnson, outgoing Chief of Naval Operations (CNO); General James Jones, Marine Corps Chief of Staff; and former secretaries of defense James Schlesinger and Harold Brown. All of them are urging that the DoD budget (currently less than 3% of GNP) be raised to 4% of GNP. On the basis of economic forecasts, that percentage would raise the defense budget to $438 billion in 2002 and to $558 billion in 2007 (whereas… Analysis, Context n°42 (November-December 2000) – The Battle of the 4%

To The Point, Context n°36 (Novembre-Décembre 1999) – The Transatlantic Enigma

The Norwegian Morass At first blush, it is fair to ask what idea Dan Hancock of Lockheed Martin Aeronautical Systems in Forth Worth, Texas, had when he made the statements reported in the 4 September issue of the Oslo Aftenposten. The F-16, produced in Forth Worth, is today in competition with the EFA 2000 Typhoon Eurofighter for an order of 20-30 aircraft under a budgetary allotment of $1.35 billion, which no one knows will be available as planned as from the start of 2000. Hancock told the Aftenposten journalist that when Norway decides which party is to be awarded the contract, the country is also… To The Point, Context n°36 (Novembre-Décembre 1999) – The Transatlantic Enigma